Daily Market Update 4/29/09

Mortgage rates rose Wednesday as stocks surged following preliminary first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GDP fell -6.1%, compared to a consensus forecast of -4.7%, but a breakdown of the report shows the large drop was mainly due to declines in inventories and business investment. Consumer spending actually far exceeded expectations. If the consumer trend continues, businesses will have to begin rebuilding depleted inventories of goods, lifting future economic activity. Separately, the Treasury announced it will sell $71 billion in long-term debt next week, a record high. This afternoon the Fed will wrap up a two-day FOMC meeting. There is no broad consensus on what the Fed will announce. Investors will be closely watching the Fed’s outlook for the economy. The last Fed announcement on March 18 produced a huge reaction in mortgage-backed securities markets. A $26 billion 7-year Treasury auction will take place at 1:00 PM et, the Fed announcement will come at 2:15. It could be a volatile day.

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