Rates inched lower Wednesday as weakness in global stocks boosted mortgage-backed securities. Newly released economic data was mixed. October Retail Sales rose 0.2%, above the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.1%. However, excluding the volatile auto component, Retail Sales rose 0.1%, below forecast. The results for September were revised higher. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1%, matching expectations. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2% and was 1.8% higher than one year ago, in line with forecast. The Empire State regional manufacturing index fell to 19.4, well below expectations for a reading of 26.0. No other key data will be released today.
Rates were little changed Tuesday despite the release of stronger than expected inflation data. This morning, the October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4%, above the consensus for an increase of 0.1%. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also rose 0.4% and was 2.4% higher year-over-year. Investors largely shrugged off the data, instead focusing on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index. Stocks moved sharply lower, which may have helped boost mortgage-backed securities. No other key data will be released today.
Mortgage rates were little changed Monday in quiet trading. No key economic data will be released today.
Rates inched higher Friday as global bond yields increased, pressuring mortgage-backed securities. In economic news, Consumer Sentiment fell to 97.8, below the consensus forecast of 100.5. No other key data will be released today.
Rates were little changed Tuesday as newly released economic data came in close to forecast. This morning, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, reported there were 6.09 million job openings in October, in line with expectations. No other key data will be released today.
Mortgage rates held steady Monday in quiet trading. No key economic data will be released today.
Mortgage rates held steady Friday following the release of weaker than expected employment data. The economy added 261,000 jobs last month, below the consensus forecast of 320,000, however the shortfall was offset by upward revisions of 90,000 job gains for prior months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest level since December 2000. The decline in rate was mostly due to workers leaving the labor force. Average hourly earnings for the month were unchanged, well below expectations, and were 2.4% higher year-over-year. Separately, Factory Orders rose 1.4%, beating forecast. The Institute for Supply Management services index rose increased to 60.1, a bit higher than expected. Yesterday, President Trump nominated Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chairman. Powell is likely to be confirmed by the Senate, and is expected to maintain continuity of Fed interest rate policy. No other key data will be released today.
Rates inched lower Thursday ahead of the release of the GOP tax reform plan and President Trump’s announcement of his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) have expressed opposition to Republican proposals to limit deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes, while increasing the standard deduction. NAR is one of the most influential lobbying groups in the country. In today’s economic news, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 229,000, slightly below forecast. Third quarter Productivity rose to 3.0%, a bit higher than expectations. President Trump is expected to nominate Jerome Powell, a current Fed governor, to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair. Powell is widely viewed as the candidate most likely to maintain continuity on interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve.
Rates were little changed Wednesday ahead of this afternoon’s Fed announcement. In today’s economic news, payrolls firm ADP estimated October private sector job growth of 235,000, above the consensus of 215,000. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell to 58.7, a bit below expectations. Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing. Construction Spending rose 0.3%, beating forecast. The Fed will wrap up its Federal Open Market Committee meeting this afternoon and release a policy statement at 2:00 PM. No rate changes are expected.
Mortgage rates held steady despite the release of stronger than expected economic data. This morning, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped to 66.2, well above the consensus forecast of 61.0, to the highest level since in more than six years. Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in manufacturing in the Midwest region. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index reported a 5.9% increase in home prices over the past year. Consumer Confidence rose to 125.9, easily beating expectations of 121.5. The remainder of the week could prove highly volatile for interest rates as the Fed will release a policy statement tomorrow following its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. More details on a proposed tax plan are to be released this week. President Trump is expected to announce his candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman on Thursday. The Employment Report for October will be released on Friday. No other key data will be released today.